Publications
How People React to a Deadline: The Distribution of Registrations of Statphys 23
Pietronero, L.; Loreto, V. & Zapperi, S., ed., 'Abstract Book of the XXIII IUPAP International Conference on Statistical Physics', Genova, Italy (2007) [pdf]
In Fig. 1 we show the number of registrations to Statphys 23
ull dots).
ch point corresponds to one day and the deadline \$T^*\$=March 31 was
e one corresponding to the early registration and abstract submission.
also plot the data corresponding to the a different conference
P2DS 17)
r which we have rescaled the total number of registration at its
n \$T^*\$.
e data of the two conferences are remarkably similar
d are characterized by an initial linear behavior followed
a strong increase near \$T^*\$.
is strong similarity suggests for a simple mechanism to describe
e response of the people to a deadline and we propose have a
mple model.
e basic idea is that the pressure you have to register is proportional
the inverse of the remaining time to the deadline.
is gives a probability, \$p(t)\$, to register at time \$t\$ that is \$p(t)
proptorac1(T^*-t)\$.
om this the number of the registrations at time \$t\$ is:

t)=C0^T^*p(t)dt=A(N_tot)T^*T^*-t).
onumber

e logarithmic singularity at the end is regularized by discretizing the
tegral with an interval of one day and the constant \$A(N_tot)\$
fixed by the total number of final registration \$N_tot\$.
one can see in Fig. 1 this simple model fits the
served behavior extremely well.
is permits to predict the total number of registrations