Predicting the Future Impact of News Events
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Proc. of the 34th European Conference on Information Retrieval (ECIR 2012), (April 2012)

The amount of news content on the Web is increasing: Users can access news articles coming from a variety of sources on the Web: from newswires, news agencies, blogs, and at various places, e.g. even within Web search engines result pages. Anyhow, it still is a challenge for current search engines to decide which news events are worth being shown to the user (either for a newsworthy query or in a news portal). In this paper we define the task of predicting the future impact of news events. Being able to predict event impact will, for example, enable a newspaper to decide whether to follow a specific event or not, or a news search engine which stories to display. We define a flexible framework that, given some definition of impact, can predict its future development at the beginning of the event. We evaluate several possible definitions of event impact and experimentally identify the best features for each of them.
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